Bitcoin Falls Below $95000. The crypto market is apparently under pressure after Bitcoin (BTC) failed to maintain the level of 95,000 US dollars (in rupiah around Rp. 1.48 billion assuming an exchange rate of Rp. 15,600 per US dollar).
Currently, the total crypto market capitalization has fallen 5 percent in the past week, reaching 3.19 trillion US dollars (around Rp. 49,764 trillion).
Bitcoin Falls Below $95000, What Happened?
Higher-than-expected United States (US) inflation and the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are the main factors weighing on investor sentiment. US inflation has increased to 3 percent annually (YoY). This exceeds previous projections.
The Fed also emphasized that it will not cut interest rates shortly, causing investors to reduce exposure to risky assets, including crypto. In addition, outflows from the Bitcoin Spot ETF increased significantly.
In the past week, the total outflow reached 581.2 million US dollars (around Rp9.06 trillion). This was able to stop the previously positive inflow trend.
In the case of Bitcoin falls below $95000, Ethereum (ETH) also recorded an outflow of 26.3 million US dollars (around Rp410.28 billion), indicating that investors are starting to reduce their altcoin holdings.
Meanwhile, from the on-chain side, 277,240 active BTC wallets were leaving the market. This of course shows a decrease in retail investor activity due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Crypto Shop Trader, Fyqieh Fachrur, said that President Donald Trump’s postponement of reciprocal US tariffs which were originally scheduled for this week also failed to boost market optimism.
“Despite the delay, investors remain concerned that the tariffs will be implemented in the second quarter of 2025, which has the potential to worsen global sentiment,” he said, via a press release on Friday (21/2/2025).
Fyqieh added regarding the case of Bitcoin falls below $95000, that the crypto market was optimistic after Trump’s victory, with hopes of looser economic policies and friendlier crypto regulations. However, the sentiment has now turned negative due to increasing outflows from the market.
“In the last four days, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced an outflow of 680 million US dollars (around Rp. 10.61 trillion). (This) indicates profit-taking and reduced exposure to risky assets,” he explained again.
Decline Driven by United States Economic Data
This price decline was driven by very disappointing United States economic data. Including the ISM Manufacturing Index report and also JOLT data, which then triggered selling pressure in the market.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin Net Taker Volume on Finance turned sharply negative, peaking at $325 million last Tuesday. That was the highest figure in 2025. Of course, it reflects increasing selling pressure due to negative sentiment in the market.
In addition to the negative technical indication of Net Taker Volume, Bitcoin’s long-to-short ratio also showed a figure of 0.89, which is the lowest in more than a month.
This ratio shows that more traders are betting on a decrease in the price of BTC. This indicates an increasingly bearish market sentiment.
“The continued selling pressure, especially on Bitcoin, shows that market participants are starting to consider the risks more seriously amid global economic uncertainty. However, traders should still pay attention to key technical levels such as $ 92,493, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level,” Fyqieh said again.
Market Shadow Sentiment
Fyqieh said that BTC continues to weaken along with US labor market data. Of course, those who test expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the first half of 2025.
US initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly and reached the lowest level since January 2024, indicating a tighter labor market. This could trigger higher inflation and strengthen projections for further interest rate hikes by the Fed.
With Bitcoin falling below $95,000, there is potential for Bitcoin to Correct and Recover Technically. Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is below the 50 level. This indicates bearish momentum.
If the price decline continues, Bitcoin has the potential to test the support level at $92,493. This is based on Fibonacci calculations from the low price range in November and the high in December.
However, if BTC can recover and break through the psychological level of $100,000, there is another opportunity for Bitcoin to retest its all-time high at $108,353.
Amidst this bearish sentiment, market players are advised to remain vigilant. Then, pay attention to key indicators that could provide clues to the direction of future price movements.
BTC’s Future Depends on Labor Market Data
Fyqieh said that BTC’s future could depend on labor market data, ETF flows, and Fed monetary policy. Broader initiatives, such as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, will also play an important role in market sentiment.
Tighter US labor market conditions could lower bets on a Fed rate cut in H1-2025. A more aggressive Fed could drag BTC below the 50-day EMA towards the $90,742 support level.
Conversely, higher unemployment rates and lower wage growth could reignite bets on a Fed rate cut in March. This would push BTC towards its record high of $108,231.
While Bitcoin falls below $95000 may seem like a significant setback, it’s important to look at the price action in the context of the broader cryptocurrency market.